Looking for the national forecast? Click me!
Republicans win
Democrats win
No Electoral College majority, House decides election
Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome according to our model.
Forecasting each Senate seat
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Hover over or click through a state to see a detailed view of the race.
How many Senate seats we expect each party to win
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.
Each bar on the histogram represents a possible breakdown of seats in the Senate. Color signifies the party in control.
2022 Election Coverage
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How the Senate forecast has changed
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win — not just whether it will win.
Who’s ahead in each state
Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.
80% of outcomes fall in this range
Special election
Incumbent candidate/controlling party
This 🦊 knows some things. But how? Read how all this works in our methodology.
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What Election Day looks like based on polls alone
What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more
What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast
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